This is it! =)

I will be back on the 2nd week of February 2012. God Bless you all!

15Jan PSEi - PSE Composite Index

PSEi needs a Coffee Break...

15Jan PX - Philex Mining Corporation

Have patience to PX as price is moving inside the Triangle for 3 weeks now. Triangles usually takes a 1 to 3 months to form. So observe carefully price action and volume this week or next week.

PX needs to breakout from the descending resistance line of the triangle at the same time RSI needs to break out from its previous high to confirm that breakout is valid and momentum upward is strong. We would be keeping a close eye on the support level line. If the stock shows signs of strength by bouncing off of its support line. This is a bullish sign of strong support and that buyers are fighting back. But a breakdown from that support line with RSI confirming the breakdown, there is a possibility that it will retest the previous low at 18.50 or at 18.68 which is the target price of the Descending Triangle. Descending Triangles has a descending resistance and flat support line and is considered a bearish pattern. This pattern indicates that sellers are more aggressive than buyers.

Bullish: If price will bounce at the horizontal support line (20.55) and breakout from the descending resistances
Bearish: If price breaks down from the horizontal support line (20.55). Might retest previous low or the descending support line at 18.50 or at 18.68.

This is my personal technical analysis on this stock. It is not my intention to give a buy or sell advise. Trade at your own risk.

13Jan EDC - Energy Development Corporation

I forgot to post this yesterday here...

Bearish: RSI Divergence (Showing weak upward momentum) and Possible Double Top
Bullish: Possible Ascending Triangle (Continuation Pattern)


Just watch out if it will break down from the ascending support line. It might test the neckline of the double top...


Disclaimer: This is my personal technical analysis on this stock. It is not my intention to give a buy or sell advise. Trade at your own risk

11Jan MPI - Metro Pacific Investments Corporation

A Potential Bearish Butterfly Pattern is forming inside the Triangle. However, I am still not that confident if it will go to the patterns target price at 3.83 coz of the possible RSI Bearish Divergence. Upward momentum is weak for now. It needs to break 3.72 and RSI (14) 61.55 to negate the RSI Bearish Divergence. Let's see.

11Jan PSEi - PSE Composite Index

Happy New Year Everyone! We finally reached the target price of the Harmonic Bearish Crab Pattern and Ascending Triangle which was seen last December 2011. Check my previous post

Let's move on and check out the bigger pattern. From 2010 to present, we see a megaphone shaped pattern... tilted up with horizontal bottom. The bottom or support trend line is horizontal while the top or resistance line slopes upward. At least two peaks and two valleys should touch their respective trend line. The pattern is called Right-Angled and Ascending Broadening Formation. The target price is 5500 if it will breakout from the resistance line (upward slope) while the target price is 2800 if it will breakdown from the horizontal support line.  

Price is now at the resistance line of the megaphone pattern and also at the Major Support Up Trend Line (Dotted Red Line). RSI (30) also facing a resistance line... previous RSI high. If both Price and RSI will breakout from their resistance, we might see that price will traverse again to the Major Support Up Trend Line. If it reacts to the resistance and reverses... it will move and test to the 46xx, 45xx, 4xx support lines. 

Just to add, using Harmonics, price is also at the level of 1.13 of XAB pattern... If price will move out from that pattern it confirms the breakout but if it reverses from that PRZ (potential reversal zone), it might be a failed breakout. The pattern in Harmonics is called 1.13 Extension - The Failed Wave.

It's more fun in the Philippines! =)

Advisory

Di ako masyado makakapag post from January to February 2012. Mejo busy sa work and prepration sa kasal. =)

God Bless you all!

06Jan - Stock Updates

MPI
- As mentioned last time, momentum upward is weakening... I'm short term bearish on this as it might correct and move down to some support lines.
- Forming a Bullish Gartley from 12/13/2011 to present. Potential reversal zone is at 3.52
- Price is now testing the 20MA support as well as RSI support line. A breakdown below that will test its previous low at 3.54
- Let's see what will happen today. Might move down or bounce from here.
- I might unload some if it continues to move down. I just want to secure my profit.

EDC
- From the bullish engulfing pattern seen last 12/29/2011, price closed higher but when it went up again to test the resistance at 6.40, price was not able do a breakout. Bearish Divergence was also spotted as RSI did not confirm that upward momentum.
-  I might unload some also if it will not break 6.40 resistance. Secure some profit.


God Bless!





Disclaimer: This is my personal technical analysis on this stock. It is not my intention to give a buy or sell advise. Trade at your own risk

05Jan BEL - Bell Corporation

BEL's Bearish Divergence kicked in already. Also shooting star reversal pattern confirmed yesterday as well as it broke down from the ascending support line. Eto yung sinasabi kong NO GO if mag breakdown ito sa support line or a mini rising wedge / pennant tilt.

Support I see is at 4.89 down to 4.78 muna...

http://coffeechart.blogspot.com/2012/01/03jan-stock-updates.html
http://coffeechart.blogspot.com/2012/01/01jan-bel-bell-corporation.html

Disclaimer: This is my personal technical analysis on this stock. It is not my intention to give a buy or sell advise. Trade at your own risk

04Jan - Stock Updates

Quick update:
Previous Post

BEL
- Sold all shares at 5.06 and 5. AEP at 4.54
- Breakdown from the mini rising wedge / pennant tilt
- This may take some rest and correct muna...
- Thank you Lord sa profit! =)

MPI and EDC
- Both are showing weak momentum upwards.

CMT
- Sold all shares from 1.58 to 1.70. Thank you Lord! =)

04Jan PSEi - PSE Composite Index

Here's comes the Bearish Crab! About to complete the pattern. Check my previous post


Quick update;


1. Breakout from the horizontal resistance 
2. Price is near the Crab's Potential Reversal Zone
3. Price also above the upper band of the Bollinger... Meaning Overbought...
4. RSI reading at 73... Overbought
5. We see 4 blue/white Marubozu candlesticks. This type of candlesticks are bullish but this also indicates a reversal in the future.
6. Let's see if it will negate the Bearish Crab pattern and still move up to the triangles TP. But this might take some rest now...

03Jan LC - Lepanto Consolidated Mining Company

Nicely done LC!!! Sakto 3 weeks then gumalaw na =) (Previous Post)

Quick update:

- Breakout confirmation tomorrow...
- We see that it bounce sa indicators (RSI and Stochastic)
- Upper band resistance is at 1.75

03Jan - Stock Updates

BEL - Bell Corporation (Previous Post) 

- I am giving this until this week to see if this will head north or south. Momentum is weakening.

- Price is making highs but still RSI is not... 

- Still has a chance if it will confirm the breakout from the pennant (tilt)

EDC - Energy Development Corporation (Previous Post)

- Not much of an update here... It confirmed the Bullish Engulfing pattern as it continued to close higher or did higher lows. But the candlesticks are weak... Not that bullish for now. 

- Immediate resistance is at 6.40. I love to see RSI to breakout 71.09 to confirm that breakout and momentum upward is valid and strong.

MPI - Metro Pacific Investments Corporation (Previous Post)

- We now see the Golden Cross over of 50 and 200dma

- Price bounced at the 20dMA acting as support

- RSI also bounced

- Resistance is at 3.77 and RSI needs to break 72.44 to confirm that momentum upward is strong

CMT - Sotheast Asia Cement Holdings, Inc. (Previous Post)

- Formed a Shooting Star Candlestick today. From S. Nison's book, it says that Shooting Star is a top reversal pattern and usually appears during a rally. Also, the Japanese say that the shooting star shows "trouble overhead."

- RSI (14) reading now at 85.71... The top RSI recorded was at 90.62 last 9/13/2010 with price at around 1.80.... Both my RSI and Stochastic indicators are saying that this is at the overbought level... 

- Volume today was high... Let's see if may magandang price action pa ito bukas. But both the candlestick and indicator are signaling that price already reached the top and signals for a reversal.

  

03Jan - My trading mistake

Just wanted to share you my trading mistake kay FOOD... I think that 3rd week of Dec 2011 I bought 5k shares at 1.42... Yung mali ko is I did not research or check company announcements/disclosures. May stock dividend pala. Yesterday, price went as high as 1.36 and closed at 1.28... So now ipit ako dito... A lesson learned.... Still holding.... I'll observe today if stop loss or hold muna ako.

====================================================================


FOOD - Stock Dividend Update
Company: Alliance Select Foods International, Inc.
Code: FOOD

Type: Stock
Value: 15.78%


Ex - Date : 02-Jan-12
Rec Date : 05-Jan-12
Pay Date : 26-Jan-12

Disclosure

01Jan CMT - Sotheast Asia Cement Holdings, Inc.

Last post for the night... =) Used classic and harmonics here... Caveat! Sana mag Crab! =P

Previous post

01Jan EDC - Energy Development Corporation

Up trend is still intact if this will reverse this week. Hope it confirms the Bullish Engulfing pattern. We also see bounce from the RSI ascending support line. This is a positive sign that there is still good upward momentum. Another tool I used is Bollinger Band with settings 20, 2... Every time price touches the upper band it reacts and corrects and bounces either at the 20dma or at the lower band. Price is now at the level  of the 20dma as well as the lower band... Let's see if it will bounce... So far the mentioned signals are positive and we might have a good bounce this week. However, if price will move down going to 6, mejo bearish na ako nun lalo na if all indicators are confirming the downward move...

What are Bollinger Bands?

Previous post

01Jan BEL - Bell Corporation

A Go or No Go for BEL? A GO if price will break out from the pennant (tilt) and target price of the pennant tilt is somewhere above 5.80. A breakout of RSI to 74.55 will confirm that momentum upward is valid. A NO GO If price breaks out from the pennant but RSI does not break out from the resistance line, this is a strong signal or confirmation that the bearish divergence is strong and upward momentum is weakening. A reversal may happen soon. Actually, a bearish divergence is already visible to the chart... price making a high last 12Dec and 27Dec but RSI is not. When that happens, there is a possibility that price will move down to 4.5x down to 4.3x level.

I say it must be a go! =P One of my heavyweight sa portfolio ko. hehe... Let's see what will happen this week. I might take profit or unload some if it breaks down from the two converging trend lines or the above statement that I mentioned about the "no go".

Previous post - If you check my previous post, the pattern that was forming before was a Bull Flag but was transformed to a pennant (tilt). You can check the net for the pennant tilt pattern.

Based on the description of J Murphy and T Bullkowski, pennants/flags are short term pattern, less than 3 weeks long. Patterns longer than that are symmetrical triangles, rising or falling wedges. For your information. Thanks.

01Jan PSEi - PSE Composite Index

Welcome 2012! Happy New year to everyone! 

Below is the year end chart of PSEi. Check out my previous post, I mentioned there that price is forming almost equal highs and higher lows... Possibly an ascending triangle. Ascending triangle is a bullish formation that usually forms during an uptrend as a continuation pattern and also indicate accumulation. A breakout from that upper horizontal resistance line will test 4400 level and possibly to go the triangles target price which is at 4564.

Inside the Triangle there is a Harmonic pattern forming... A potential Bearish Bat and Bearish Crab. Price is now at the potential reversal zone of the Bearish Bat (D1). If it continues to move up it will negate the Bat pattern and move up to the target price or potential reversal zone of the Crab pattern (D2).

If price will break out from the horizontal resistance line, we hope that RSI (14) also breaks out from 66.50 resistance to confirm that momentum upwards is valid.

Price is also now testing the ascending support line and we see a 2 candlestick pattern, a Bullish Engulfing pattern... We see a higher volume on the last candlestick compared to the previous day which gives us a positive sign that reversal is going to happen... The reversal needs further confirmation. This confirmation may be in the form of a white/green/blue candlestick, a large gap up or a higher close on the third day.

That's what the chart is telling me... But what about the bearish side of PSEi? A break down from the the triangle or at the 2 horizontal support (dotted gray) will bring down the price to 4200 level.

Thanks for visiting my blog and reading my analysis. Feel free to provide comment/s on this analysis. God Bless!